![]() Eight – nil wasn’t a lucky score line, Manchester City were in fact only over performing slightly.Ī painful but predictable score line (Getty Images) The 8-0 final scoreline doesn’t seem too far off what the stats would suggest. Using some real word examples from you can see that in a recent game between Manchester City and Watford in the EPL that City had an xG of 6.63 from their shots, compared to Watfords 0.34. A team could have 20 shots compared to another team’s 5 but if those shots are all outside the box and have a low success rate generally then you would expect fewer goals than 5 shots taken in the goal mouth. Or at all? It can be a useful stat in determining whether a team is producing lots of good chances or just lots of poor shots. Why would you even care about xG in FM19? The higher number the more chances, or the better the quality of the chances. Over the course of the match all the values can be totalled give a number of expected goals for the that match. ![]() Once you have an idea of how likely certain shots are to go in you can use this baseline to determine the goals a team might expect to score. The most commonly considered factors are the position of the shot and the angle, though some models consider the type of pass leading to the shot and the number of defenders between the attacker and the goal. ![]() There are lots of different models of xG that take into account different factors when considering how likely a shot is to result in a goal. This is a much better explanation than mine…
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